How Sunderland can break the cycle

It has not been easy for Sunderland this season...

Note: This article was written before (and slightly during and after) Advocaat leaving the post.

It's a well-known trope now: Sunderland's unbreakable cycle. Start poorly, sack manager, improve, stay up, repeat. It's a constant wheel of dejection, new lows and 60th minute fan walkouts that doesn't seem to have a palpable end. How do Sunderland lift themselves out of this endless whirlwind?

It's possible. Perhaps teams haven't settled into a routine quite as stubbornly as Sunderland in the past, but you can pick out examples of teams drawing themselves away from their usual character. 

Crystal Palace hauled themselves beyond their usual 'get promoted, instantly get relegated' routine with the astute appointment of Tony Pulis, followed by Alan Pardew's superb management of the club. Meanwhile, David Moyes' Everton legacy took them from perennial strugglers to top-half mainstays. Clubs can change, but it takes a lot of brave decision-making and a clear plan to achieve.

How can Sunderland do it? My belief is that the following steps presents the team's best chance of fulfilling their potential. 

 

1. Advocaat should go

And, as I later found out, he did.

Yeah, I know. I'm starting the list off with a sacking, which is a major part of the problem already. However, Sunderland won't improve their hopes of stabilising and establishing a stronger team without turning over a new leaf, and I just don't believe that Advocaat can be a part of this.

He's a lovely bloke, and has undoubtedly worked hard and sacrificed a lot to be Sunderland manager. However, it doesn't seem like an entirely happy situation for him currently, and it looks like quite a big part of him wants to be somewhere else. Whether that's because his wife doesn't want to live in Sunderland, or if he doesn't have the passion for the job, or if he just wishes he had carried through with his plans to retire, something is holding Advocaat back from truly enjoying the opportunity to manage a big Premier League club. 

Given the scenario that faces Sunderland, and the inevitable tough days to come, Advocaat's mentality will add an extra weight to the already sinking ship. Although he was rightly commended for his decision to stay into the start of this season, that shouldn't obscure the truth that he doesn't seem to be the right man for the job.

 

2. Pick the right man

Could Nigel Pearson be Sunderland's solution?

This would seem like an obvious step, but Sunderland have often been at the disadvantage of choosing their managers in March, limiting the pool of potential prospects. The last time they bucked this trend was following the 2008-2009 season: Sunderland appointed Ricky Sbragia as caretaker manager after sacking Roy Keane, meaning they could get Steve Bruce at the end of the season. 

If they do let Advocaat go, Sunderland's board should have a very clear vision of who would be the best man to take over. There needs to be patience here also - if it means appointing an interim manager until the end of the season and waiting for the perfect candidate to become available, then so be it. 

It's easy enough to talk about picking the right man, but Sunderland can't be accused of not trying different tactics when it comes to appointing managers. They've gone for Premier League experience (Steve Bruce, Martin O'Neill), passion (Paolo Di Canio), lower-league rising stars (Gus Poyet) and international pedigree (Dick Advocaat). However, all of these managers came with certain baggage which held them back, and all were given, at most, two years to get it right. 

It's difficult to decide what Sunderland needs the most, but I would argue that passion needs to be a part of the skillset. Recently theories have been bandied around that suggests Northern teams are at an inherent disadvantage for socio-economic reasons, meaning that top players find the idea of living in such areas undesirable. Whether or not this is as significant as has been suggested, Sunderland will have to accept the changing landscape of football and understand that they need to do more to convince quality players to move up North. A passionate enigma of a manager could be a part of winning such a battle.

Nigel Pearson has been mentioned, and this could be a reasonable shout. No-one can deny the man's passion (often straying into the comical), and he has the experience of hauling a seemingly desperate team out of the relegation places. Pearson's success in building a strong Leicester team capable of staying in the Premier League shows he has an eye for a good player, and the conviction of his own beliefs to keep faith in his side when results went against him.

For the sake of argument, let's say Pearson is chosen and move onto step three.

3. Insist on a squad overhaul

Lee Cattermole - a relic from six managers ago...

The current Sunderland squad is made up of broken bits from a variety previous regimes. It's as if someone has taken pieces from five different jigsaw puzzles and tried to glue them together - the result is about as pretty as Sunderland's football. There is little cohesion in the side, and every new manager has had to work with the (often failed) judgements of his predecessor.

Sunderland's board should insist that a new manager completely overhauls the current squad. It is impossible to instil a set of philosophies and tactical nuances effectively when working with a team that isn't yours, and ultimately Sunderland will need a manager to do this for there to be any hope of progression. While a huge changeover may be costly, it pays dividends well beyond a constant patchwork job of adding new players who don't really fit the rest of the squad.

With Pearson hypothetically appointed, he should use the rest of the season to assess the players within his own playing style. It may be that he can put together a starting eleven who function well in his system, or it may be that he only chooses to keep the goalkeeper. Either way, the most important thing is that the board trust the way he operates, and fully backs any transfers he instigates.

4. Don't be afraid to get relegated

Sunderland's last Championship season wasn't so bad...

It seems that the Sunderland board's biggest fear is to get relegated to the Championship, and every decision made is a scrabbling attempt to marginally keep Sunderland above the dotted line. This is the ultimate in short-term thinking, and relegation should be considered as a probable step in the rebuilding process - a step that is not without its benefits. In our ever-growing hypothetical, let's suggest that Pearson is appointed, he starts to put his philosophy into practice but, as a result, the team is relegated.

Normally, Pearson would be sacked at this point, but the board must back their man. Relegation is not the end of the world, especially with the sincere belief that the manager will eventually lead the club to success. Relegation is a huge opportunity to regroup, build a new team and get fans motivated again.

Away from the pressures of the Premier League, it is far easier for a club to take a few risks with bringing in new talent. It doesn't matter if a signing flops or if young players are struggling to find their feet - the sneering punditry and media criticisms of the manager's judgement are turned down to a barely audible volume once a club is out of the top tier. Time in the Championship would give Pearson an opportunity to play some of the youngsters, sign lower-league talents he feels have strong potential and find his perfect eleven.

And yes, I did say it will get fans motivated again. While Sunderland supporters are still admirably keeping attendances high (42,000 yesterday against West Ham), I feel like I could create a three-hour montage of all the footage where fans leave the game early. A spell in the Championship may mean attendances dip initially, but when the winning starts it really doesn't matter which league you're in. People love to go and watch their team win, and a club the size of Sunderland will, with the right manager, undoubtedly hover close to the top spot.

5. Let the manager build a dynasty

Perhaps it was the hope that Roy Keane would do the same.

To break the cycle, Sunderland will have to do things differently. They have tried all sorts of different managers, but the one thing they haven't attempted recently is letting one build their own dynasty at the club. It is easy to make knee-jerk decisions when results aren't going well, but the knees of the Sunderland board have been doing riverdance for far too long.

With our hypothetical Pearson-led Sunderland bouncing back into the top flight, they now have a squad which is suited to his liking. Perhaps they struggle in that first season, and it looks like they're heading for the exit once more. Do Sunderland get rid of him then? Do they get a new manager in to keep the team in the Premier League? After all, they worked so hard to get there, surely one sacking to boost the club's chances won't hurt.

But of course, the answer is they shouldn't. It does take time for a good manager to set everything the right way, and there will always be setbacks. Judgement should always fall back to that first moment, where the board chose the manager. What did they choose him for? What were their ambitions? What did they see occurring? What's the plan? If the board were truly certain when they made that decision, it should be clear. Making mistakes as a great manager often isn't just one or two games, sometimes it's entire seasons. But if the board knows it has the right manager, then the only thing they have to do is stick to their conviction.

It begins

In the process of writing this, Advocaat has left Sunderland. Pearson has already been rumoured as a possible replacement, so while this might seem like the continuation of that oh-so-predictable Sunderland cycle, maybe it's the moment where the wheel falls off of the choking, spluttering car, and flies off down the road into new pastures. Maybe we are beginning on this new cycle, and perhaps in a few seasons will see a Sunderland brimming with momentum, confidence and the ability to finally fulfil the huge potential that has always been threatened.