Kimi is Ferrari's Safe Bet

Raikkonen will race for Ferrari in 2016

Ferrari team boss Maurizio Arrivabene seems to be aware that managing Kimi Raikkonen is a game of careful motivation and precise timing. Earlier in the season, the no-nonsense Italian suggested that Raikkonen was already in Ferrari's plans for the future, but that they did not want to offer him a new deal to ensure that complacency would not become an issue.

However, with speculation starting mount up and becoming Ferrari's big elephant in the room, Arrivabene and the team have relented and Raikkonen can guarantee himself one of the most prestigious seats on the grid for the upcoming season. While there may have been some possibility for the much-fancied Valtteri Bottas to slip into the famous red cockpit, the management have either deemed that too risky, too expensive or too soon.

Kimi's form - steady improvement?

Kimi's best result this season was 2nd in Bahrain

Part of the reason the whispers of replacement became murmurs was down to Raikkonen's under-par performances. This was more prominent last season, but it's difficult to ignore that despite the Finn scoring reasonable points all year, his new team-mate Sebastian Vettel has racked up over double his tally. Couple that with Vettel's two race victories, and there is a clear hierarchy in the Ferrari team.

Things came to a head in Austria after Kimi's worst performance of 2015. He qualified 18th and crashed out of the second corner of the race. Nevertheless, the signs that things would be OK for Kimi should have been apparent from Arrivabene's post-race comments, in which he refused to criticise his driver and reassured that the team would be taking a more holistic approach to Raikkonen's performance when deciding if he should remain with the team. Clearly, this sort of encouragement displays Arrivabene's desire to have Raikkonen at the team.

In the final race before the summer break, Raikkonen could have capped off a Ferrari 1-2 had it not been for engine troubles which led to him retiring. The team have mastered the psychology of keeping Kimi at the team, and it's producing increasingly good performances from the Finn.

Seb and Kimi - a match made in heaven

Ferrari have been happy with the positive relationship between their drivers.

In the run-up to the 2015 season there was a lot of debate as to how Vettel would cope with having a former World Champion to contend with as a team-mate. His fiery relationship with Mark Webber, and his mopey persona while Daniel Ricciardo dominated last season, added up to the image that Ferrari's new superstar may be difficult to work with.

Cut to August, and things appear to be appropriately rosy between the duo. Vettel and Raikkonen have built an amicable working relationship that has allowed both of them to score satisfying results across the season. With two former champions in the team, Ferrari will no doubt understand how valuable a commodity it is to have the two working beyond just themselves.

Would it be foolish to cash this in? Bringing in a less experienced driver with the potential to upstage Vettel would definitely make the situation more volatile and could affect results negatively. While Ferrari are just inching their way back into the picture as one of the top teams in the sport, perhaps it would be reckless to bring in a circus of biting retorts and vicious accusations to distract from the excellent progress they are making.

There's no rush

Speculation suggested that Bottas would replace Raikkonen

If this was the final opportunity to pick up some of the biggest talent on the grid, then you could call this decision a bit safe and unadventurous. But with Ferrari choosing to close their seats for 2016, there truly isn't much of an option for best young talent on the grid to move upwards.

Mercedes and Ferrari are probably the two outfits that would hold the most glamour to an upcoming star of F1, but both have confirmed their driver line-ups for next season. Williams and Red Bull are probably next up, and they do have potentially spare seats. However, neither of these teams quite have the same pull as Ferrari, both in current and historical contexts (albeit Williams runs Ferrari close). Arrivabene will feel he can prize any driver away from these teams, and it's easy to imagine that Bottas will want an option in his new Williams contract in preparation for the call from Ferrari in 2017.

The only possible way one of Ferrari's targets could suddenly become unreachable is if they take the unlikely step of joining a team that promises future glory, such as McLaren. However, with the disastrous results that has heralded for Fernando Alonso, it looks unlikely that anyone will take that chance.

Glad to have him

According to the recent GPDA survey (a survey I incomprehensibly analysed here) Kimi Raikkonen is the most popular driver in Formula One. It was quite likely that, had he not been retained by Ferrari, the Finn would have left the sport for good. With that in mind, it's personally relieving to know that Kimi will still be a part of the F1 world.

After all, how can you not love someone who, when asked what they think of Spa-Francorchamps one of the most historically wonderful circuits in F1, replies "It's quite nice".

My Hairpin Over Vettel

Say ‘Vettel’ out loud. Did you hear that echo? That echo that seemed to say ‘Schumacher’? It was a metaphor anyway. Don’t read too much into it if you didn’t. If you literally did though, then be careful, because you sound a bit mental. I was just sort of pointing out that there domination of the sport seemed similar. Go see a doctor, mate.

Anyway, Sebastian Vettel is just one point away from crowning himself World Champion for the second year running. Without doubt, absolute congratulations are in order for the German, who regardless of his advantages, has capitalised to etch himself into the annals of Formula One history. Well done Seba.

Now that’s over with, let’s be more brutally honest. There’s a good reason why some people, me included are still very lukewarm to the idea of Vettel as a Formula One great. It’s not because I don’t think he’s good enough, but rather because he’s never proved it to me. I’m not saying he won’t one day show me he is a truly skilful driver deserving of a place alongside the likes of Clark, Senna and Fittipaldi, but he’s not shown the signs of being so yet. That sounds odd to say about a man who has won 19 races in 76, but there’s a lot more to it than this.

My first point is rather obvious. Vettel has had the best car for two, maybe even three seasons running now. The Red Bull is an incredibly quick machine thanks to the crazy brains of Adrian Newey and Christian Horner, both of whom deserve unrelenting credit for their contribution to two big championship wins. They have produced a car that is capable of being about half a second quicker than any other on a hot lap, and that sort of advantage for a driver is an absolute dream.

I should point out that the above sentence is an estimate rather than a fact. It’s tricky to say how much the Red Bull’s advantage is down to driver and how much is down to the car, but I find it difficult to believe that Vettel is half a second quicker than the likes of Hamilton and Alonso purely through his own ability. You can accuse me of confirmation bias here but I think we have to be honest. Webber’s a great driver but he’s not particularly fast overall, and even he has found it fairly easy to outpace the others in qualifying.

My second point is that Vettel’s luck this year has been beyond belief. He has managed to dodge every single bit of misfortune that could’ve possibly befallen him. Not one pitstop has gone wrong, not one mechanical problem, not one set of tyres misjudged, not one safety car at the wrong time, not one first corner incident, not one car causing trouble when being overtaken, not one change of weather that didn’t suit him. It’s been absolutely crazy.

This may be down to the fact that Vettel is always leading into the first corner, I suppose, but even Schumacher in the dreary early noughties of F1 had a few mishaps to deal with during races. Vettel’s only struggles have been of his own making, such as when he fell off the track in Canada to allow Button the victory. With this in mind, it would have been absolutely criminal had Vettel not taken the title this season, given his blessings throughout the season.

Now I look upon the above seven paragraphs I must pause. I feel like I’m being overly harsh on a young man who has only taken his every chance in front of him, and seized them with a ferociously clinical style. Perhaps this is a totally pointless speculation when you consider the difficulties in judging the ability of a Formula One driver at any given time. I mean, what do we judge? Is it their ability in the best car? The worst car? At this point in time? Ten seasons ago? How do we do it?

I suppose the fact of the matter is Vettel has probably got the car of his dreams right now, but if we are to take in every attribute of a driver’s ability, then surely being in the right place at the right time is just as valuable? Perhaps Vettel isn’t as quick as Hamilton or Alonso. Maybe he would struggle with either of them as a team-mate, but in any case neither of them had the foresight to place themselves in Red Bull’s hands when it mattered.

Vettel’s patience with the Toro Rosso team is probably what has bought him this huge opportunity to win titles, and he’s taking them. Regardless of speed, judgement and everything else that a Formula One driver requires, if they aren’t putting themselves in the right places at the right times, then they won’t succeed. Schumacher may not have had the legacy he has today where it not for his faith in the Ferrari team. Hamilton would probably not be a former champion if he hadn’t cheekily told Ron Dennis he would drive for McLaren one day.

God, James Hunt probably could’ve given up about 30 times before he’d even made it to Formula One given his struggles in Formula 3000, but he persevered and that was a big part in his championship. We shouldn’t write Vettel off just because he has it easy now. It’s a long journey to get into the winning car, and Vettel has made it. Consequently, he deserves all the opportunities he gets.

Well, that was a strange writing process. There was no editorialising here (I’m too lazy for that shit), I genuinely thought I was going to decry Vettel’s championship merits in this one. But as I came to the halfway point I suddenly realised it was meaningless to him, his team and his supporters to make that case at all. Whether or not he’s up there with Clark, Senna and the rest is totally unimportant. Vettel can only play to his potential and that he is doing.

It’s fun to discuss what drivers would be like competing on a level playing field, and it’s easy to make educated guesses based on whether they overperformed or underperformed in their cars, but this sort of thing is facile when we talk about what a ‘great champion’ is. All you need to be a great champion is to be a champion. If you’ve done that, you deserved it. That’s what the system is there for.

There are great drivers who were never champions, and there were champions that were never great drivers, but the two entities don’t always aim towards the same thing. Maybe Vettel is a great driver. Maybe he isn’t. But he’ll always be a brilliant champion.

Strife in the Fast Lane

The word ‘tumultuous’ was invented for people like Lewis Hamilton. He’s the sort of sportsman who cannot go through a season in his career without a heap of controversy and incident being levelled upon his shoulders, but despite this he is still considered one of the best Formula One drivers on the grid. How does such a star lend himself to such inconsistency, you might ask (if you were talking to him)?

There’s been much written about Lewis’ recent chequered form. A lot of people say it’s a problem with his attitude, some say he lacks support, some say he’s just not that good a driver. Whatever the reasons for his lack of consistency, I think the truth is his dip has been marginal, at worst. This year was never going to be his year with the fantastically quick Red Bulls tearing up the field, but Lewis has consolidated a decent 168 points thus far, with a solitary win in China to his name.

As people point out though, he’s been outclassed this season by his team-mate Jenson Button, a perhaps less fancied driver amongst the Formula One ranks up until this season. I don’t think this would be a fair reflection on Button though, as in my opinion he’s a driver that just defines quality in each department. He’s pacy, a fighter, a tactician. To be behind Button is no disgrace at all.

Besides, Jenson has much more experience than Hamilton. His many years in fairly average cars such as the BAR and the Renault were a steep learning curve for Button, but going through such a school of hard knocks has clearly worked wonders for him. When his chance came in a competitive car, he was far readier than his team-mate at the time Rubens Barrichello, who had spent quite a few years playing the safe understudy role to Michael Schumacher. Still, this perhaps doesn’t explain why Hamilton has fallen behind his team-mate.

Whatever the reason, it’s clear that Lewis is currently going through a school of much harder knocks. It’s true that he’s never had to participate in a useless car for more than a few races at a time, but he’s always been in a fight for something, no matter what season it was, and he’s always been making mistakes along the way. It’s easy to forget though, that Hamilton’s career is still in relative infancy, and these mistakes will continue for a few years yet.

But that will come to be his advantage in the near future. If we look at Sebastian Vettel at the moment, he is enjoying the benefits of an absolutely amazing car. There’s nothing wrong with that particularly, but it’s quite incredible that practically no misfortune has befallen Vettel throughout the whole season.

You could say that’s great; that he isn’t making mistakes and he’s matured from his more petulant 2010, but I feel that he’s missing the sort of fight that characterizes Hamilton and Button. It’s rare that he isn’t leading races into the first corner, it’s rare that he gets overtaken and it’s rare that he has to deal with any problems during the race. The Red Bull won’t always be the best car on the field, rather like the McLaren wasn’t in 2008. But whereas Hamilton created the opportunity for the title that year, I have my doubts that Vettel will be able to do the same in the future.

So what about these many incidents that Hamilton’s been having? Why is his style reminiscent of bumper-karts at the moment? I think that this is just the nature of the beast. Hamilton’s style is to absolutely hammer every chance to overtake, and when he gets this right it’s completely spectacular. Nothing compares to it in modern day F1. However, when he’s off-form, this sort of style will take the unfortunate appearance of Hamilton just getting one thing wrong and thumping someone off the road.

That’s why I say Lewis’ dip in form is marginal – He’s only making the odd mistake when you consider how often he gets himself into a scrap on track. Just look at Monza. He spent 27 laps trying every trick in the book to get past Schumacher, and only our old German friend’s brilliant defending snuffed the opportunities out. If Hamilton had really lost his head, he would have ended up going into the back of Schumi’s Mercedes at some point.

So although it’s difficult to know why Hamilton is struggling at the moment, I think there’s no need to fear for him. He’s had a difficult year but he’ll have learned a lot. There was never really an inkling of hope that he’d win the title thanks to Christian Horner and Adrian Newey being Gods amongst men, but next year he’ll be more prepared than ever.