Iceland in the Ascendency

Iceland fans are celebrating unprecedented success.

With the European Championships expanding from 16 to 24 teams, the qualification campaign for France 2016 seemed unlikely to generate much significant discussion. There were fears that the larger teams would coast into the competition having broken barely a bead of sweat, while Europe's perennial whipping boys would continue to battle against conceding double figures in every tie. The only real drama, it appeared, would be from middling nations scrapping for play-off places.

But a spread of fascinating narratives across the continent has spiced up the intrigue in this deceptively straightforward elimination process. Wales have seized their best opportunity to qualify for a major tournament since 1958, by surprisingly dominating a group containing the much-fancied Belgians. On the flipside, 2004 champions Greece have suffered the indignity of defeats to Faroe Islands, which has summed up a tumultuous qualification campaign in which they are now on their third manager.

Flying, under the radar

Iceland's diminutive stature provides a stark contrast to their brilliant form.

These are fascinating tales of massively changing fortunes, but while these steal the column inches, the extraordinary events of Group A arguably mark the most significant upset taking place in Europe. Iceland, a nation with the miniscule population of just 300,000 people, could be making their major tournament debut next summer. This is impressive enough, but the manner in which Iceland may qualify is truly astounding.

No-one would have given Strákarnir okkar much more than a prayer five years ago, and despite a good 2014 World Cup qualification campaign, a tough group kept their hopes similarly watered down. Iceland were pitted against the Netherlands, Czech Republic and Turkey - three strong nations, and even with a play-off place for third, Iceland seemed like just an outside hope. 

Iceland's double Dutch success

As well as victories over Holland, Iceland have triumphed over Turkey and Czech Republic.

Flash forward to today, and Iceland have climbed above all of these teams. With three games to go, Iceland have already assured a play-off place, and have an 8 point cushion for automatic qualification - capable mathematicians will spot that this means just one more victory will propel Iceland into a historic first major tournament.

Amongst Iceland's most impressive performances in the campaign are two victories over the Netherlands. This ought not to be taken lightly - Holland reached the semi-finals of the last World Cup, which included a 5-1 victory over previous champions Spain. Iceland beat them 2-0 at home almost a year ago, capitalising on a laboured performance from the Dutch with two Gylfi Sigurdsson goals. 

However, tonight's 1-0 win at the Amsterdam ArenA displays Iceland's legitimate international pedigree, proving that they are beyond just triumphing over jaded giants. Some sources suggest that Iceland managed to keep 71% of the possession, a ridiculous statistic if true. Neither of these victories were fluke results, but illustrated the culmination of Iceland as a well-oiled machine of a side.

What has changed for Iceland to become sudden heavyweights?

A novel coaching team

Lars Lagerback's arrival has had a monumental impact.

Iceland's ascendency can be traced back to 2011, with the appointment of Lars Lagerback. Lagerback was Sweden manager between 2000 and 2009, during which he led the Swedes to qualify for every major tournament besides the 2010 World Cup. With such an excellent track record, Iceland's appointment of Lagerback is a coup that may have turned the course of the nation's history. 

According to Lagerback, the Icelandic FA didn't set their new manager any specific targets, but he quickly set about changing the mentality of the team. Lagerback focussed on maximising the efficiency of Iceland's players with astute, comprehensive tactical planning. As well as this, he looked to develop a professional, strong and positive attitude from his squad.

His success was almost immediate - it's easy to forget that Iceland were just one victory away from reaching the 2014 World Cup. An impressive campaign saw them finish second to Switzerland, and the (ultimately, and blamelessly, inexperienced) team came up short against Croatia in the play-offs. Despite this gut-wrenchingly close call, the progress Iceland had made was unmistakable. In 2013, the Icelandic FA took the novel approach of promoting Lagerback's assistant manager Heimir Hallgrimsson to joint-head coach. The arc of progress has remained consistent, and Lagerback's considerable achievements may be topped if Iceland can make history.

Star men

Gylfi Sigurdsson's creative flair, set-piece prowess and ability to keep the ball has been vital.

Just as Wales' surge in form can be partly credited to having a star talent in Gareth Bale, Iceland can look to Gylfi Sigurdsson as the talisman for their recent success. Sigurdsson tops the scoring charts in Group A with 5 goals, including three against Holland. Though he may not be an £85million megastar in the same way as Bale, Sigurdsson's value to Iceland is incalculable, and Lagerback has previously reserved special praise for his top attacking-midfielder. 

Though Sigurdsson draws the plaudits for his attacking talent, it should be noted that Iceland's defence has performed just as remarkably. The combined efforts of Ragnar Sigurdsson, Birkir Saevarsson, Ari Skulason and Kari Arnason, along with goalkeeper Hannes Halldorsson, mean that Iceland have conceded just three goals throughout the entire campaign (one of which was an own goal). The combination of capable attacking flair and solid defending has made Iceland an imperious opponent.

Real contenders?

Iceland will reach Euro 2016 - but just how far can they go?

With only one more win required, and home fixtures to Kazakhstan and Latvia still to come, Iceland's qualification is almost assured. A massive bridge will have been crossed, but Iceland won't dwell on simply reaching Euro 2016 - there is plenty of reason to believe that they could go further.

One of the implications of the new 24-team format means that it will be possible to qualify for the knockout fixtures by finishing third in the group stages. Given Iceland's excellent results in qualifying, Lars Lagerback will likely see this as an absolute minimum for the team, and will potentially even eye a quarter-final given the team's penchant for causing upsets.

Iceland's prospects will be brightened by their current world ranking position of 23rd, which should make it likely that they compete in a group free from the 'big nations'. Nevertheless, if Iceland do find themselves in a group of death, Lagerback will have no qualms about attempting to pull off the shock he managed when bringing Sweden into the knockout stages of the 2002 World Cup, eliminating Argentina in the process.

Iceland's story is already a major surprise, but the biggest shock may be yet to come.