How Sunderland can break the cycle

It has not been easy for Sunderland this season...

Note: This article was written before (and slightly during and after) Advocaat leaving the post.

It's a well-known trope now: Sunderland's unbreakable cycle. Start poorly, sack manager, improve, stay up, repeat. It's a constant wheel of dejection, new lows and 60th minute fan walkouts that doesn't seem to have a palpable end. How do Sunderland lift themselves out of this endless whirlwind?

It's possible. Perhaps teams haven't settled into a routine quite as stubbornly as Sunderland in the past, but you can pick out examples of teams drawing themselves away from their usual character. 

Crystal Palace hauled themselves beyond their usual 'get promoted, instantly get relegated' routine with the astute appointment of Tony Pulis, followed by Alan Pardew's superb management of the club. Meanwhile, David Moyes' Everton legacy took them from perennial strugglers to top-half mainstays. Clubs can change, but it takes a lot of brave decision-making and a clear plan to achieve.

How can Sunderland do it? My belief is that the following steps presents the team's best chance of fulfilling their potential. 

 

1. Advocaat should go

And, as I later found out, he did.

Yeah, I know. I'm starting the list off with a sacking, which is a major part of the problem already. However, Sunderland won't improve their hopes of stabilising and establishing a stronger team without turning over a new leaf, and I just don't believe that Advocaat can be a part of this.

He's a lovely bloke, and has undoubtedly worked hard and sacrificed a lot to be Sunderland manager. However, it doesn't seem like an entirely happy situation for him currently, and it looks like quite a big part of him wants to be somewhere else. Whether that's because his wife doesn't want to live in Sunderland, or if he doesn't have the passion for the job, or if he just wishes he had carried through with his plans to retire, something is holding Advocaat back from truly enjoying the opportunity to manage a big Premier League club. 

Given the scenario that faces Sunderland, and the inevitable tough days to come, Advocaat's mentality will add an extra weight to the already sinking ship. Although he was rightly commended for his decision to stay into the start of this season, that shouldn't obscure the truth that he doesn't seem to be the right man for the job.

 

2. Pick the right man

Could Nigel Pearson be Sunderland's solution?

This would seem like an obvious step, but Sunderland have often been at the disadvantage of choosing their managers in March, limiting the pool of potential prospects. The last time they bucked this trend was following the 2008-2009 season: Sunderland appointed Ricky Sbragia as caretaker manager after sacking Roy Keane, meaning they could get Steve Bruce at the end of the season. 

If they do let Advocaat go, Sunderland's board should have a very clear vision of who would be the best man to take over. There needs to be patience here also - if it means appointing an interim manager until the end of the season and waiting for the perfect candidate to become available, then so be it. 

It's easy enough to talk about picking the right man, but Sunderland can't be accused of not trying different tactics when it comes to appointing managers. They've gone for Premier League experience (Steve Bruce, Martin O'Neill), passion (Paolo Di Canio), lower-league rising stars (Gus Poyet) and international pedigree (Dick Advocaat). However, all of these managers came with certain baggage which held them back, and all were given, at most, two years to get it right. 

It's difficult to decide what Sunderland needs the most, but I would argue that passion needs to be a part of the skillset. Recently theories have been bandied around that suggests Northern teams are at an inherent disadvantage for socio-economic reasons, meaning that top players find the idea of living in such areas undesirable. Whether or not this is as significant as has been suggested, Sunderland will have to accept the changing landscape of football and understand that they need to do more to convince quality players to move up North. A passionate enigma of a manager could be a part of winning such a battle.

Nigel Pearson has been mentioned, and this could be a reasonable shout. No-one can deny the man's passion (often straying into the comical), and he has the experience of hauling a seemingly desperate team out of the relegation places. Pearson's success in building a strong Leicester team capable of staying in the Premier League shows he has an eye for a good player, and the conviction of his own beliefs to keep faith in his side when results went against him.

For the sake of argument, let's say Pearson is chosen and move onto step three.

3. Insist on a squad overhaul

Lee Cattermole - a relic from six managers ago...

The current Sunderland squad is made up of broken bits from a variety previous regimes. It's as if someone has taken pieces from five different jigsaw puzzles and tried to glue them together - the result is about as pretty as Sunderland's football. There is little cohesion in the side, and every new manager has had to work with the (often failed) judgements of his predecessor.

Sunderland's board should insist that a new manager completely overhauls the current squad. It is impossible to instil a set of philosophies and tactical nuances effectively when working with a team that isn't yours, and ultimately Sunderland will need a manager to do this for there to be any hope of progression. While a huge changeover may be costly, it pays dividends well beyond a constant patchwork job of adding new players who don't really fit the rest of the squad.

With Pearson hypothetically appointed, he should use the rest of the season to assess the players within his own playing style. It may be that he can put together a starting eleven who function well in his system, or it may be that he only chooses to keep the goalkeeper. Either way, the most important thing is that the board trust the way he operates, and fully backs any transfers he instigates.

4. Don't be afraid to get relegated

Sunderland's last Championship season wasn't so bad...

It seems that the Sunderland board's biggest fear is to get relegated to the Championship, and every decision made is a scrabbling attempt to marginally keep Sunderland above the dotted line. This is the ultimate in short-term thinking, and relegation should be considered as a probable step in the rebuilding process - a step that is not without its benefits. In our ever-growing hypothetical, let's suggest that Pearson is appointed, he starts to put his philosophy into practice but, as a result, the team is relegated.

Normally, Pearson would be sacked at this point, but the board must back their man. Relegation is not the end of the world, especially with the sincere belief that the manager will eventually lead the club to success. Relegation is a huge opportunity to regroup, build a new team and get fans motivated again.

Away from the pressures of the Premier League, it is far easier for a club to take a few risks with bringing in new talent. It doesn't matter if a signing flops or if young players are struggling to find their feet - the sneering punditry and media criticisms of the manager's judgement are turned down to a barely audible volume once a club is out of the top tier. Time in the Championship would give Pearson an opportunity to play some of the youngsters, sign lower-league talents he feels have strong potential and find his perfect eleven.

And yes, I did say it will get fans motivated again. While Sunderland supporters are still admirably keeping attendances high (42,000 yesterday against West Ham), I feel like I could create a three-hour montage of all the footage where fans leave the game early. A spell in the Championship may mean attendances dip initially, but when the winning starts it really doesn't matter which league you're in. People love to go and watch their team win, and a club the size of Sunderland will, with the right manager, undoubtedly hover close to the top spot.

5. Let the manager build a dynasty

Perhaps it was the hope that Roy Keane would do the same.

To break the cycle, Sunderland will have to do things differently. They have tried all sorts of different managers, but the one thing they haven't attempted recently is letting one build their own dynasty at the club. It is easy to make knee-jerk decisions when results aren't going well, but the knees of the Sunderland board have been doing riverdance for far too long.

With our hypothetical Pearson-led Sunderland bouncing back into the top flight, they now have a squad which is suited to his liking. Perhaps they struggle in that first season, and it looks like they're heading for the exit once more. Do Sunderland get rid of him then? Do they get a new manager in to keep the team in the Premier League? After all, they worked so hard to get there, surely one sacking to boost the club's chances won't hurt.

But of course, the answer is they shouldn't. It does take time for a good manager to set everything the right way, and there will always be setbacks. Judgement should always fall back to that first moment, where the board chose the manager. What did they choose him for? What were their ambitions? What did they see occurring? What's the plan? If the board were truly certain when they made that decision, it should be clear. Making mistakes as a great manager often isn't just one or two games, sometimes it's entire seasons. But if the board knows it has the right manager, then the only thing they have to do is stick to their conviction.

It begins

In the process of writing this, Advocaat has left Sunderland. Pearson has already been rumoured as a possible replacement, so while this might seem like the continuation of that oh-so-predictable Sunderland cycle, maybe it's the moment where the wheel falls off of the choking, spluttering car, and flies off down the road into new pastures. Maybe we are beginning on this new cycle, and perhaps in a few seasons will see a Sunderland brimming with momentum, confidence and the ability to finally fulfil the huge potential that has always been threatened.

Football Round-Up: Ji, the Title Contenders are Starting to Yak

The last two days of football have been half topsy, half turvy. Giants seem to be dropping like big poisoned flies, and the hopeless seem to be rising up with unseen spirit. This is true in the Premier League especially, as we witnessed two of the most unexpected results of the season, along with other title challengers stumbling and a few well-needed displays from bottom-dwellers. It’s been enough to put Martin Tyler into a cataclysm of euphoria so dangerous, he may have to be put into a coma to compensate.

Speaking of which, though I wasn’t able to watch Sunderland’s shock victory over Manchester City on Sky Sports as I’m staying at home and my parents cancelled Sky Sports just a couple of days ago (on the day of a live Pompey game, agonisingly). I have seen a clip of Tyler’s commentary, and it reaffirms him as one of the best, with passion brimming from his lips.

Really though, you’d be absolutely right in accusing me of missing the point by talking about a broadcaster ahead of the game itself (I could go back and change it, but that would involve editing and effort and stuff). Sunderland’s win is such a perfect moment in football. It’s that subversion of everything that should happen in one explosive second. There’s no reason why Manchester City should lose a game like that, and thus a fairytale (of sorts) is born. Die-hard, desperate defending followed by daylight robbery (that doesn’t sound at all like a fairytale, on retrospect).

It seems Martin O’Neill has not so much breathed a new life into the side as emptied his lungs into it. They’ve scored 10 points out of the last 15 and looked a far cry from the fumbling shambles that Steve Bruce inadvertently assembled. Under Bruce’s regime, a lot of the squad seemed very anonymous and you’d be forgiven for not knowing half of Sunderland’s starting eleven. However, the players appear to be making themselves noticed again. Sessegnon has looked like an absolute powerhouse in midfield, Craig Gardner is integrating into the side with total commitment and Seb Larsson is beginning to convert his annoyingly good free-kicks. That said, with such strange results throughout the table, relegation is still a very real threat for many sides, including The Black Cats.

For Manchester City who have thrown away points in three of the last five games, one wonders where things are going wrong. Just a few weeks ago the team were striding from one game to the next with confidence burning the faces of their opponents, but suddenly times seem to have gotten tough and they aren’t looking like championship-certainties anymore. It could be argued that this is just a rough patch, as any team will go through. I expect there will be a better indication of whether or not that is the case over the next few weeks, with a gamit of tough fixtures on the horizon.

However, you do have to call into question their lacking in that all important attribute: experience. Though a truly impressive array of talent on their books, none of today’s Man City starting eleven have been anywhere near a title race (with the exception perhaps of Samir Nasri). It’s an oft-cited excuse that I feel is overblown, but it’s hard to deny that, having been in this position countless times, Manchester United aren’t advantaged in the title race.

That said, United have illustrated their proneness to crumbling like soggy cake. Yesterday’s defeat to Blackburn is the only possible result in football that, given the previous hopelessness of Steve Kean, was more unlikely than Kim-Jong Un being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. However, despite the almost boringly clichéd United comeback threatening to make a return, Blackburn somehow managed to find a winner and get three of the most precious points in a relegation fight. It takes a lot to win at Old Trafford (unless you’re Man United) and you need many things in your favour to make it happen. That includes a king’s portion of luck, a bit of flair and class on the pitch (in the shape of somebody like Yakubu) some tight defending, David De Gea on the field and an undeterred team spirit. It’s the lattermost that surprises me. I figured Blackburn players would feel lower than the Earth’s core, but for all his shortcomings, Steve Kean appears to be inspiring something in the team.

If Kean can turn things around at Blackburn it would be one of the most remarkable stories in football. I’ve never known a manager to be subject to such bitter protests, yet his wounded heart soldiers on and results have started to turn in his favour. In fact, one wonders if the abuse had touched the United team emotionally, and they let them win because they felt bad for him. That could be Kean's master plan. Whatever though, Blackburn are still a team in deep trouble, but the ray of hope has been cast off the shiny bald head of the Scot.

United’s title ambitions never seemed as fierce for the 2011-2012 season. Though their signings during the summer were good, absent from transfer proceedings was still that one player to make Manchester United into the team to be as utterly feared as they were during the Cristiano Ronaldo days. If they were going to win the league this season, it seemed they would do it quietly and efficiently. However, it’s really been all over the place. They’ve destroyed teams one minute and lost games bizarrely the next. It seems there’s little consistency in the team, and that may be down to the younger element of the squad that came with the summer changes. Lack of experience may just be affecting United as well as City.

Indeed, it could well be the issue for Andre Villas-Boas as well. The Chelsea team itself oozes experience, but their lickle baby of a manager is starved of it. Their defeat to Aston Villa, whilst surprising, caps an awful run of form for The Blues. They appeared to lack the strength and confidence to cope with Aston Villa’s counter attacking football (I must say, it was lovely to watch a real-life Jew Goal performed this weekend). 

Chelsea’s title ambitions are probably over. However, the fallen giants around them may give them a view of the greener pastures. They have a long gap to close, and if the transfer market isn’t utilised you’d say the ageing squad doesn’t have enough about it to make any real impact. However, with Chelsea there is always that chance. I’d give them more hope than Tottenham and Arsenal still, because we all know what they are capable of. A big run from here to the end of the season, with a little help from the fellow contenders struggling, may just see them back in contention.

Those were the big three results. I’ll go over the others a bit more briefly, because this looks long and I want to get back to playing Football Manager. Arsenal have been the form side in recent weeks, but their 1-0 win over QPR hasn’t cleansed my feeling that Robin van Persie is carrying that side like a camel with giant haystacks (either the animal fodder or the former wrestler will work in this simile) on its back. The Dutchman’s class made the difference once again, leaving a larger indent in the minds of those who worry about his inevitable injury.

Everyone kept going on about his record for scoring in a calendar year (including John Motson, who when commentating van Persie's goal against Everton completely ignored one of the most amazing physical feats in modern man whilst he was scrabbling around looking for his big book of statistics... I can empathise). While impressive, they only seemed to measure it up against Premier League players, with Alan Shearer being the record holder on 36. I appreciate that the Premier League is now the ‘Common Era’ of football, but really it would’ve been nice to see him compared to Lofthouse or Dean. This fact especially annoyed my Dad, who has now realised that football wasn’t invented until 1992 and all his memories of the game until then was an elaborate mirage perpetrated by Thatcher to give hooligans a place to go.

Bolton got an important point against Wolves in their fight to stave off relegation. Their form has resembled a lingering cold; constantly below par but with that expectation things will different next week. Though they could have done with a win yesterday, the point itself and a more encouraging performance will take away the downer of being bottom of the table. On a side-note, Sam Ricketts’ goal was excellent. I remember hearing him on the radio a month or two back whilst he was still injured, and he seemed like a good bloke, so I’m glad for him (in a cold, distant sort of way).

There was more late drama at Carrow Road as they pulled off a last-minute equaliser to deny Fulham the victory. Orlando Sa, a footballer who thuds against the ‘forget’ button in your memory, looked promising, causing problems all around Norwich’s defence and just being generally annoying. However, the plucky Canaries continue to get the important goals and have stood up to my expectations that they will have a good season. I’m glad for them (in a cold, distant sort of way).

Stoke had a pretty fun game against perennial survivors Wigan. 1-0 down, they won a penalty following Caldwell’s handball as Jerome headed towards goal. Caldwell was sent-off, and there was this strange argument from people who were incensed as the handball wasn’t deliberate. I don’t think that’s really the point when you deny a clear goalscoring opportunity. The opposition needs a concrete retribution on such occasions, and a red card is a good way of ensuring that (it doesn’t always work though, ask Ghana). Anyway, Stoke scored the penalty, Cameron Jerome (who amazes me with his perfection of embodying the word 'average') made it 2-1, and yet those never-say-die Wigolians managed to scrape a point with a late penalty.

A meeting between two of the most entertaining teams in the league, Swansea and Tottenham, ended in a 1-1 draw. It’s another frustration for Spurs, who have nagged away as possible title candidates, but as that sexy Scot Alan Hansen repeatedly says “Tottenham will always let you down”. If letting you down involves a top four finish, I don’t think Spurs fans will mind so much, but with the squad looking so capable and the football being so damn impressive, I think Tottenham not being close to ‘up there’ at the end of the year will feel a little like wasted potential.

And finally, it turns out Victor Anichebe still exists as he scored the winner against West Brom today. I had to check, but the lad is still only 23. It feels like he’s been around for decades, turning up every now and then from a long break to score a goal and then exit the stage for another seven months. At 23, you’d be tempted to say he’s had enough time to prove himself, but with Everton’s striking options looking brittle, Anichebe may still have a role to play at the club.

So that’s the Premier League wrapped up. I would talk about the Championship, but I can’t be bothered. All you need to know is the top two both lost, with Middlesbrough skimping on the chance to mix it up in there by drawing to Peterborough. Portsmouth got a decent result away to Leicester City, with Marko Futacs scoring his first goal in a 1-1 draw. And Watford secured a big win over Doncaster. Other than that, no other football really matters.

Alright, I'm sorry. I do like lower league football, but I haven't seen any of it the past few days. I'll make a bit more effort next time. But really after that, what else is there. I mean, Scottish football? Is that still around?

Anyway, to end this feature is going to be a regular couple of awards. Here they are:

Goal of the Weekend: Sam Ricketts’ sumptuous curler against Wolverhampton.

Team of the Weekend: Sunderland, for their heroic battling against City.

The ‘Huh, that’s different’ Award: Victor Moses, for simply not looking at a penalty.

Football Round-Up, if I can fight off the urge to be an ungodly lazy little oaf, will be a regular feature, so like, come back and stuff.